In Response to croissant222

[Nami]

I wrote my master thesis only to find out the previous thread was deleted (I'm assuming because of the obnoxious name).

I'm creating this thread to help croissant222 know why reopening is a bad idea.
If this is against the rules in anyway please let me know and I'll remove the thread.

the reason i say it is
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html
https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...sts-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
as u see the protests have not been causing more cases of corona, so i think that lifting quarantine will not do bad

A few quotes from your first article. I can't read the second one so the first will have to do.

"Our findings suggest that any direct decrease in social distancing among the subset of the population participating in the protests is more than offset by increasing social distancing behavior among others who may choose to shelter-at-home and circumvent public places while the protests are underway" (taken directly from the report mentioned in the article)

"It's still possible that protests may have caused an increase in the spread of the virus among those who attended protests, according to the report." (taken from the article itself)

So it's basically saying that the decrease in social distancing caused by the protests is "more than offset" by the increased social distancing from those who choose to stay at home and avoid public places while the protests are underway.
It also says that the report hasn't completely ruled out that protests have caused an increase in the spread of Covid.

So let's take a look at some statistics.
Texas where I have a few friends is spiraling completely out of control and there are numerous reports of hospital beds filling up.

and now Massachusetts where I live.

That's a major difference in both the change and amount of cases. You'd think it'd be the opposite right? Especially considering that Massachusetts has 885 residents per square mile and Texas having 110 residents per square mile.

So what's the difference between Texas and MA?
We'll refer to this article by the NY Times regarding the opening (and subsequent reversals) of quarantine.

Key Points:

• Texas had one of the shortest stay at home orders
  
• Texas currently has many more types of businesses open (Namely gyms, entertainment like movie theaters, amusement parks, pools, etc)
• A surge in cases caused Gov. Abbott to order reduced capacity for restaurants and order bars to close.
• Massachusetts' planned reopening takes course over a span of 12 weeks and was set to begin in May with the stay at home order expiring on the 18th.
  
• Massachusetts had a massive spike around the beginning of June which potentially coincides with the entering of a new phase of opening and the massive protests following George Floyd's death.
• Texas has a lot more idiots that refuse to wear masks or take this seriously. They've made their bed and now they have to lie in it.

In summary; the article states that the protests did not cause an up-tick in Covid cases, not that there wasn't an up-tick. It also states that the potential spread from the protests was offset by the amount of people staying at home to avoid said protests.

 

[Desert]

what

 

[RiznSun]

Easy to say when you forget the millions of Americans who have lost jobs due to the lockdowns. It is a severe economic burden to keep things closed down. Also the cases are obviously surging due to the recent reopenings, nobody contests that. The thing is, the infection rate is increasing, but not the death rate, and this makes sense given that there is a wider availability of testing now and it is easier to diagnose than before. We can't look only to Texas as an example of why the whole nation shouldn't reopen, as the healthcare systems of each state varies widely in their capacity and quality.

Here's some evidence showing a lack of correlation between infection rate and death rate:

And this is evidence elsewhere aside from just (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) one site, so it cannot be contested without a robust counterargument.

Also, there is lots of evidence to suggest that much more people than thought before already have had the virus, with mostly asymptomatic effects. This suggests that countless Americans have already had the virus, and that they are incapable of transmitting it 14 days after initial contact. Evidence: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

Testing is more widely available, and it is much more treatable now than ever. Everyday Americans should not be burdened with the restrictive rules set in place, and at the very least, it should be a state-by-state decision as to how to handle their specific procedures, and there should be no blanketed national approach by a federal government that does not understand the needs and capabilities each individual state.

 

[Nami]

Easy to say when you forget the millions of Americans who have lost jobs due to the lockdowns. It is a severe economic burden to keep things closed down. Also the cases are obviously surging due to the recent reopenings, nobody contests that. The thing is, the infection rate is increasing, but not the death rate, and this makes sense given that there is a wider availability of testing now and it is easier to diagnose than before. We can't look only to Texas as an example of why the whole nation shouldn't reopen, as the healthcare systems of each state varies widely in their capacity and quality.

Here's some evidence showing a lack of correlation between infection rate and death rate:

And this is evidence elsewhere aside from just (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) one site, so it cannot be contested without a robust counterargument.

Also, there is lots of evidence to suggest that much more people than thought before already have had the virus, with mostly asymptomatic effects. This suggests that countless Americans have already had the virus, and that they are incapable of transmitting it 14 days after initial contact. Evidence: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

Testing is more widely available, and it is much more treatable now than ever. Everyday Americans should not be burdened with the restrictive rules set in place, and at the very least, it should be a state-by-state decision as to how to handle their specific procedures, and there should be no blanketed national approach by a federal government that does not understand the needs and capabilities each individual state.

What a strawman. I'm not advocating for a blanketed approach, I'm simply saying that reopening is not the right play.

You know what would help with those jobless Americans? Anything more than a $1,200 check that was 4 months ago.
Everywhere is going to experience economic downturns and the way to avoid these is not by intentionally allowing more Americans to be infected even if they might not die.

Look to Canada, their economy is on the rise now and they've been providing citizens with $500 a week.

• 290,000 new jobs last months (One of the strongest one-month gains on record)
  
• Hours worked have increased by 6.3%
• Those receiving CERB (Canada's Emergency Response Benefit) have dropped by 1.2 million from a peak of 8 million

They took proper precautions and stayed under quarantine.
Now look at the amount of daily cases from today to two weeks ago as states have been reopening.

Most states are still on the rise and opening up would just exacerbate the problem.

Sources:
- https://www.thestar.com/business/op...the-economy-stands-and-where-were-headed.html
- https://www.npr.org/sections/health...king-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

 

[Alistair F.]

What a strawman. I'm not advocating for a blanketed approach, I'm simply saying that reopening is not the right play.

You know what would help with those jobless Americans? Anything more than a $1,200 check that was 4 months ago.
Everywhere is going to experience economic downturns and the way to avoid these is not by intentionally allowing more Americans to be infected even if they might not die.

Look to Canada, their economy is on the rise now and they've been providing citizens with $500 a week.

• 290,000 new jobs last months (One of the strongest one-month gains on record)
  
• Hours worked have increased by 6.3%
• Those receiving CERB (Canada's Emergency Response Benefit) have dropped by 1.2 million from a peak of 8 million

They took proper precautions and stayed under quarantine.
Now look at the amount of daily cases from today to two weeks ago as states have been reopening.

Most states are still on the rise and opening up would just exacerbate the problem.

Sources:
- https://www.thestar.com/business/op...the-economy-stands-and-where-were-headed.html
- https://www.npr.org/sections/health...king-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Frankly can't be bothered to write a paragraph of why you're correct, but you're correct.

 

[Cutie Dog]

I think I agree, idk, this gave me a brain fart

 

[RiznSun]

What a strawman. I'm not advocating for a blanketed approach, I'm simply saying that reopening is not the right play.

You know what would help with those jobless Americans? Anything more than a $1,200 check that was 4 months ago.
Everywhere is going to experience economic downturns and the way to avoid these is not by intentionally allowing more Americans to be infected even if they might not die.

Look to Canada, their economy is on the rise now and they've been providing citizens with $500 a week.

• 290,000 new jobs last months (One of the strongest one-month gains on record)
  
• Hours worked have increased by 6.3%
• Those receiving CERB (Canada's Emergency Response Benefit) have dropped by 1.2 million from a peak of 8 million

They took proper precautions and stayed under quarantine.
Now look at the amount of daily cases from today to two weeks ago as states have been reopening.

Most states are still on the rise and opening up would just exacerbate the problem.

Sources:
- https://www.thestar.com/business/op...the-economy-stands-and-where-were-headed.html
- https://www.npr.org/sections/health...king-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

You can't compare Canada to the United States as they have much less population density and a lower overall population, so its hard to equate the two.

Also the U.S. has pumped trillions into the economy for both companies and workers, as they have done with the business loans and paycheck protection programs, so its not only the stimulus check at play here.

The U.S. economy is on the rise too, despite the rising cases (source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm):
- 4.8 million jobs added in June
- Unemployment rate fell to 11%

And you haven't addressed my point regarding the rising cases, but the stagnant death rate, which indicated a lack of correlation between the two. This means mostly that the majority of people getting it are healthy and mostly aren't at risk of the virus.

Why don't we open up, and advise the highest risk groups with caution to stay safe, so this virus can run its course among the general public body much sooner rather than strong quarantines or intermittent re openings as the cases rise and fall, which would only prolapse the virus over a longer period of time.

Frankly can't be bothered to write a paragraph of why you're correct, but you're correct.

Very productive towards the conversation. Good work.

 

[Nami]

You can't compare Canada to the United States as they have much less population density and a lower overall population, so its hard to equate the two.

Also the U.S. has pumped trillions into the economy for both companies and workers, as they have done with the business loans and paycheck protection programs, so its not only the stimulus check at play here.

The U.S. economy is on the rise too, despite the rising cases (source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm):
- 4.8 million jobs added in June
- Unemployment rate fell to 11%

And you haven't addressed my point regarding the rising cases, but the stagnant death rate, which indicated a lack of correlation between the two. This means mostly that the majority of people getting it are healthy and mostly aren't at risk of the virus.

Why don't we open up, and advise the highest risk groups with caution to stay safe, so this virus can run its course among the general public body much sooner rather than strong quarantines or intermittent re openings as the cases rise and fall, which would only prolapse the virus over a longer period of time.


Very productive towards the conversation. Good work.

Last response I'm going to make to this because you don't seem willing to change your mind and just want to argue for the sake of it.

"You haven't addressed my point regarding the rising cases, but the stagnant death rate"

I said above "Everywhere is going to experience economic downturns and the way to avoid these is not by intentionally allowing more Americans to be infected even if they might not die.".

Just because the death rate may be stagnating doesn't mean we should allow more people to run the risk of becoming infected. It's very possible for the virus to evolve.

And I don't think you can really say deaths are stagnating. As you can see from my graph which is a bit more legible, it's spiking up and down. I don't think it's consistent enough to say "the death rate is stagnating. 670 Americans have died yesterday due to Covid. I think this is too many.

From Dr. Fauci: Coronavirus was 'Allowed' to perpetuate in the U.S. because 'Only about 50 percent of the country locked down'
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000kg33

Thursday Florida reached 100k cases in a single day.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ingle-day-idUSKBN243299?utm_source=reddit.com

"Coronavirus cases rose by nearly 50 percent last month, led by states that reopened first"
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...40ece9a701dc_story.html?utm_source=reddit.com

"Well it's only 670 people! That's not too much!"
Those 670 people have families and friends. They have their own lives, memories, a favorite song, a favorite color, a food their mom would always make them from childhood. They're not just numbers, they're actual people in your state and in my state.

Please look into stories of these people yourself and tell me if it's worth the risk.
Just because someone isn't dead, doesn't mean they aren't sick, in pain, or even suffering.

You have people openly protesting against masks and you really think now is a good time to open? Only in the US are we turning this into a political issue and until we don't have massive groups of people protesting basic safety measures and not wearing masks, we can't reopen.

These are the people you're gonna trust enough to reopen?

Edit: It's funny seeing croissant222 giving ratings but not responding

 

[doodle]

everyone reading this rn:

 

[Nami]

everyone reading this rn:

Good post bro! It was really funny and creative and made me lmfao :rofl::rofl::rofl:

 

[500miles]

 

[doodle]

Good post bro! It was really funny and creative and made me lmfao :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Did you seriously expect anyone to care? Nobody wants to hear your argument with a rando.

 

[Ty]

idc about the US, all i know is reopening the UK is da best

 

[Nami]

Did you seriously expect anyone to care? Nobody wants to hear your argument with a rando.

What? Bro I'm just complimenting you on your post it was really funny.

But no I didn't, I wanted to argue online and I don't know this guy and don't have his Discord.
Can you hurry up and get banned already? Just a few more points man you're so close

 

[Annie S.]

Don't have the time at the moment to write the coherent essay I would like to about this subject but god bless that I lost my staff rank in time to say that people advocating to re-open / against masks are either unbelievably ignorant or hideously lacking for empathy. The government can afford to pay you to stay alive while you're staying home and not working. It's the literal least you could do. A fraction of a fraction of the wealthiests' paychecks would be enough to keep the country afloat for years.

As someone with family in East and South-East Asian countries, who has family that is directly impacted by COVID and who grew up in various places around the world, it's absolutely insane to see countries across the world trying their best to stem the flow of COVID and Americans going "hm... some people just have to die. that's just how it gotta be".

Much of my childhood was spent in rural China and the degree of freedom that Westerners have is enviable, and definitely admirable... but then, sometimes, the freedom lands in the hands of people who have actually less than one braincell, and that's how you get people campaigning to open the country just for the right to go outside and die, suffer from long-term health conditions, and/or get immuno-compromised individuals killed... as if "keeping place shut for continuous amounts of time rather than opening and shutting them repeatedly is actually better for small businesses" and "keeping places shut for continuous amounts of time will SAVE actual HUMAN LIVES" are debatable statements.

 

[User]

in response to the flaky french butter bread:
no

 

[doodle]

What? Bro I'm just complimenting you on your post it was really funny.

But no I didn't, I wanted to argue online and I don't know this guy and don't have his Discord.
Can you hurry up and get banned already? Just a few more points man you're so close

So you made a thread on a minecraft forum instead of PM'ing him? Really goes to show you're smart!!! :tup:

 

[Nami]

So you made a thread on a minecraft forum instead of PM'ing him? Really goes to show you're smart!!! :tup:

And you see where PMing him would've gotten? He hasn't even responded but someone else was here to argue his point.

If I see someone spouting some dumb shit I'm gonna respond publicly so hopefully anyone who holds those same opinions can see and change their mind.

For someone who doesn't care you sure are responding a lot. Also what are you trying to achieve with your funny ratings?
You think anyone actually cares about those lmao?

 

[doodle]

Also what are you trying to achieve with your funny ratings?
You think anyone actually cares about those lmao?

Welcome to the internet ladies and gents

 

[Nami]

Welcome to the internet ladies and gents
View attachment 369041

We've come full circle