Tiktok
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It's not that bad.
There's a weird anti-tiktok sentiment around people who use forums like this (namely, Reddit). If you haven't yet I strongly encourage you to give it an hour or two of your time. If you don't like it after using it for that long, odds are you never will, but you may be surprised with what you find.
My expectation is if TikTok is banned without a realistic bypass: what happened on Vine will repeat. Established social media platforms (Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, Snapchat) will see a massive influx of TikTok creators trying to replicate their style. Of those, maybe 10 of the largest will gain a substantial following to sustain more than a year or two, just like Vine. A great number will fade off into obscurity. In roughly a years time, there may be a viable TikTok replacement. Right now I would say the odds are best for Triller.
If TikTok successfully "Americanizes" itself however that may happen, I expect one of two things. A, All continues as normal or B, TikTok America can't get an agreeable license deal for some videos, or it needs to heavily modify the algorithm, whatever the issue may be and TikTok as a platform declines in quality as a result. TikTok only works because it's algorithm is one of if not the best of it's kind. TikTok gives itself 1 chance to pick the right video, and most of the time, it nails it. If a critical piece of the puzzle falls out, it may result in it's own downfall.
Finally, TikTok creators are going to realize their unstable position and start encountering the troubles with TikTok. You'll see a lot of TikTok creators having to resort to fairly aggressive measures to promote their other social channels as TikTok makes it very difficult to move off of TikTok.
No matter what happens, there is change upon the horizon in social media.
My expectation is if TikTok is banned without a realistic bypass: what happened on Vine will repeat. Established social media platforms (Instagram, YouTube, Twitter, Snapchat) will see a massive influx of TikTok creators trying to replicate their style. Of those, maybe 10 of the largest will gain a substantial following to sustain more than a year or two, just like Vine. A great number will fade off into obscurity. In roughly a years time, there may be a viable TikTok replacement. Right now I would say the odds are best for Triller.
If TikTok successfully "Americanizes" itself however that may happen, I expect one of two things. A, All continues as normal or B, TikTok America can't get an agreeable license deal for some videos, or it needs to heavily modify the algorithm, whatever the issue may be and TikTok as a platform declines in quality as a result. TikTok only works because it's algorithm is one of if not the best of it's kind. TikTok gives itself 1 chance to pick the right video, and most of the time, it nails it. If a critical piece of the puzzle falls out, it may result in it's own downfall.
Finally, TikTok creators are going to realize their unstable position and start encountering the troubles with TikTok. You'll see a lot of TikTok creators having to resort to fairly aggressive measures to promote their other social channels as TikTok makes it very difficult to move off of TikTok.
No matter what happens, there is change upon the horizon in social media.
Just 10? Vine had way more than that (assuming you didn't just pick 10 as a random number to show that it will be limited), and I'd imagine TikTok could have even more. I mean, for Vine, we had both the Pauls, Lele Pons, Amanda Cerny, Drew Gooden, Kingbach, Rudy Mancuso, Thomas Sanders, Hannah Stocking, David Dobrik, Cody Ko, Liza Koshy, Anwar Jibari, Curtis Lepore, Brandon Calvillo, etc etc (and those are just the ones I personally can think of)
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