Important Note: This post has been "Disagree Bombed" by Tenebrous viewers. This is the response to his video. I ask you read my post, then watch the video before you finalize your opinion.
TL;DR, I'm skeptical. I think the game will be fine, but I'm predicting that this will end up with a situation that tries to do everything, and ends up doing nothing well.
For all intents and purpose I have assumed Hytale's gameplay to be similar to a modded version of Minecraft. I do not focus on the gameplay and am not interested on said gameplay. It is nearly impossible to speculate on gameplay given the current information, so I instead focused in on Hytale from a business perspective.
My main overarching idea is that it seems to be trying to do too many things at once. Something that is trying to do everything will end up doing good at nothing.
What Hytale is trying to do?
V-Bucks. Every game, every app, every business wants to be in control and profiting from the next version of V-Bucks.
The thing about systems like V-Bucks is that the cost for a developer of adding a new skin, a new dance, a new cosmetic is incredibly low, an afternoon of 1 developer can make a product that you can sell for $10 a copy.
On the left, you see the 2 characters dancing, I'm guessing those are emotes and our main character running by is wearing some sort of special higher value, purchasable skin.
What I see here is avoiding answering the question, they don't actually answer the question here because, as in Battlefront 2, the plan is for a V-Bucks sort of system, but by answering the question, they implicate themselves to face the medley of criticism from the playerbase prior to release.
They make a specific note in the trailer of "Be Yourself" though, on the character screen
In contrast to
Be Yourself, but only in the confines of our limited wardrobe we picked for you, not the actual endless options provided in Minecraft. But wait, we can let you be more unique, but you'll have to pay for that. And there is the business model they chose to leave out of their Q&A, one that relies on V-Bucks.
Open Platform and Modding
This is a photo from the trailer of what appears to be a Hytale version of Javascript in their proprietary web-based development platform. This is actually good, my initial presumption after not digging into this screenshot is that there would be no real ability to code in features. That being said, Hytale is a closed platform.
Closing the client means that there will be no plugins, no mods, no external tools. Only what Hypixel let's you put into the game can be put into the game. This being in contradiction to their claim that "every aspect of Hytale is customization". There may be more information in the future, but their Trailer, Q&A and Blog Posts, modification of the data, sounds and models of items and monsters is possible, but there is no word on making additions to the game.
Hytale does state that the platform will allow for some sort of live server migration, which will be a joy for larger servers looking to bottom out pings.
The thesis of this section is that Hytale will allow modifications to the platform, but not additions like what allows for the existence of Hypixel.
Implications for the demographics of MC-Market.
Now that's all well and good, but how can I make this profitable to me.
Well first I'm going to make a projection. Speculation on Domains specifically is running rampant. I project that this speculation will continue to bubble, up until launch. Once the launch hits, I predict the bubble to burst, and a mass influx of domains and assets that were able to be developed for Hytale prior to launch will hit the market. This will drive down the price for some time until eventually bottoming out around the Initial cost of the assets.
So what will make some actual revenue?
Well all the "Minecraft OG sellers" with half a brain have already made 100 emails and signed them all up for the beta so they can try and get as many OG names as they can, so the OG market will be flooded exactly 30 seconds after they can pick names.
That leaves servers, which have an interesting ability to create their own animations and emotes, otherwise creating their own version of the "V-Bucks" on a server per server basis. Services like building and development will obviously spring up to go along with those. I would not advise betting on Hytale as a thing that will active 2 years post launch.
Conclusion
Hytale is not the "Minecraft 2" I've seen so many referring to it as. There will not be another Minecraft 2, not in the post v-bucks games market. What Hytale will be is a quick opportunity for those already familiar with the community to capitalize on that opportunity to make a quick profit in the months following the launch.
The characters kind of fall into an uncanny valley for me. I'm not sure if that's just because of the trailer animation.
I think the gameplay looks pretty good from the trailers. I'm most interested in the minigames, but the adventure mode sounds like a fun way to spend a weekend.
For those considering speculating on domains, don't spend more then you're willing to lose, I would not expect there to be a large market for domains.
Hypixel knows a thing or two about game design, but this is their first title, and they seem to be betting on it being a big thing, expect bugs, expect developer shortcomings and expect sloppy support.
Apparently the Adventure mode relies on procedural generation but also has a story to it and has hand crafted scenarios? Not sure how they plan on working that out unless they are going for a No Man's Skies approach, solid plan :tup:
There are going to be vehicles. Not sure how I feel about this in a block game.
There is going to be a solid anti-cheat, so I don't think hackers are going to be a problem.
The cinematic features means that there are gonna be some solid memes on the internet right quick after launch.
I think the gameplay looks pretty good from the trailers. I'm most interested in the minigames, but the adventure mode sounds like a fun way to spend a weekend.
For those considering speculating on domains, don't spend more then you're willing to lose, I would not expect there to be a large market for domains.
Hypixel knows a thing or two about game design, but this is their first title, and they seem to be betting on it being a big thing, expect bugs, expect developer shortcomings and expect sloppy support.
Apparently the Adventure mode relies on procedural generation but also has a story to it and has hand crafted scenarios? Not sure how they plan on working that out unless they are going for a No Man's Skies approach, solid plan :tup:
There are going to be vehicles. Not sure how I feel about this in a block game.
There is going to be a solid anti-cheat, so I don't think hackers are going to be a problem.
The cinematic features means that there are gonna be some solid memes on the internet right quick after launch.
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